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HUANG Chuanjiang,QIAO Fangli. 2015. Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 34(3):31－41

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

基于CMIP5模式的南海海平面未来变化预估

Received:May 25, 2014 Revised:October 10, 2014

DOI：10.1007/s13131-015-0631-x

Key words:sea level rise South China Sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models

中文关键词: 海平面升高南海动力海平面比容海平面 CMIP5模式

基金项目:

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
HUANG Chuanjiang	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China
QIAO Fangli	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China	qiaofl@fio.org.cn

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Abstract:

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea (SCS) is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. By the end of the 21st century (2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005), the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level (DSL) is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise (SLR) of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level (SSL) rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

中文摘要:

利用24个CMIP5模式,评估了不同排放情景下南海动力和比容海平面的未来变化趋势。在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种排放情景下,南海多模式集合平均的动力海平面估计在本世纪末(2081-2100年)分别升高0.9、1.6和1.1 cm (相对于1986-2005年)。将这些变化与同期全球平均变化叠加,发现南海总的海平面分别升高为40.9、48.6和64.1 cm。这意味着我国南海在本世纪将会出现明显的海平面升高现象,但其量值仅略大于全球平均。在这期间,南海的比容海平面在三种排放情景下分别升高6.7、10.0和15.3 cm,仅占南海总海平面变化的16%、21%和24%。这些变化在空间并不是均匀的,南海中部海盆的比容海平面变化比北部和西南部的陆架区的变化明显偏大,但动力海平面变化略小。

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