| Ma Qiuyun,Jiao Yan,Ren Yiping,Xue Ying. 2020. Population dynamics modelling with spatial heterogeneity for yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) along the coast of China. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 39(10):107－119 |
| Population dynamics modelling with spatial heterogeneity for yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) along the coast of China |
| 中国沿海小黄鱼种群动力学及其空间异质性研究 |
| Received:September 06, 2019 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-020-1602-4 |
| Key words:yellow croaker population dynamics Bayesian hierarchical model geographic variation |
| 中文关键词: 小黄鱼 种群动力学 贝叶斯递阶模型 空间异质性 |
| 基金项目: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Ma Qiuyun | Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USA
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China | | | Jiao Yan | Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USA | | | Ren Yiping | Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China | | | Xue Ying | Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China | xueying@ouc.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| As one of the top four commercially important species in China, yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) with two geographic subpopulations, has undergone profound changes during the last several decades. It is widely comprehended that understanding its population dynamics is critically important for sustainable management of this valuable fishery in China. The only two existing population dynamics models assessed the population of yellow croaker using short time-series data, without considering geographical variations. In this study, Bayesian models with and without hierarchical subpopulation structure were developed to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the population dynamics of yellow croaker from 1968 to 2015. Alternative hypotheses were constructed to test potential temporal patterns in yellow croaker’s population dynamics. Substantial variations in population dynamics characteristics among space and time were found through this study. The population growth rate was revealed to increase since the late 1980s, and the catchability increased more than twice from 1981 to 2015. The East China Sea’s subpopulation witnesses faster growth, but suffers from higher fishing pressure than that in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. The global population and two subpopulations all have high risks of overfishing and being overfished according to the MSY-based reference points in recent years. More conservative management strategies with subpopulation considerations are imperative for the fishery management of yellow croaker in China. The methodology developed in this study could also be applied to the stock assessment and fishery management of other species, especially for those species with large spatial heterogeneity data. |
| 中文摘要: |
| 小黄鱼是我国近海四种最重要的经济鱼类之一，在过去的几十年中小黄鱼种群及其两个地理亚种群经历了巨大的变化。小黄鱼的种群动力学研究，对于维持这一重要渔业的可持续管理是至关重要的。目前仅有的两个小黄鱼种群动力学模型只涵盖了较短的时间，且没有关注其空间差异。本文研究了1968年至2015年间黄渤海和东海小黄鱼的种群动力学模型，包含和不包含空间分层结构的两种贝叶斯模型被用于分析其种群动力学的大尺度空间异质性。本文分析了不同的假设，来研究小黄鱼种群动力学潜在的变化趋势。研究结果表明小黄鱼种群动力学特征具有明显的时间和空间变化。种群的增长速度从20世纪八十年代开始增加，而可捕系数从1981年到2015年增加了两倍多。与黄渤海亚种群相比，东海的小黄鱼亚种群生长速度更快，遭受的捕捞压力也更大。基于最大可持续产量MSY的参考点表明，无论是整个小黄鱼种群还是两个亚种群，近年来都有非常高的过度捕捞风险。因此我国小黄鱼的渔业管理急需更加保守的管理策略，同时考虑其地域差异。本文所用的方法可以应用于其他种类的资源评估和渔业管理，尤其是具有空间异质性和数据有限的种类。 |
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