| Hou Jingming,Li Xiaojuan,Wang Peitao,Wang Juncheng,Ren Zhiyuan. 2020. Hazard analysis of tsunami disaster on the Maritime Silk Road. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 39(1):74－82 |
| Hazard analysis of tsunami disaster on the Maritime Silk Road |
| 海上丝绸之路海啸灾害危险分析 |
| Received:December 21, 2018 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-019-1526-z |
| Key words:tsunami occurrence regularity hazard Maritime Silk Road |
| 中文关键词: 海啸 特征规律 危险性 海上丝绸之路 |
| 基金项目:The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2016YFC1402000, 2016YFC1401500. |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Hou Jingming | National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China | jingminghou@foxmail.com | | Li Xiaojuan | College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China | | | Wang Peitao | National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China | | | Wang Juncheng | National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | | | Ren Zhiyuan | National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| The Maritime Silk Road is not only a passageway for business and trade, but also the road of friendship between eastern and western civilizations. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 caused major damage to several coastal countries. Tsunami occurrence regularity and hazard analysis are needed to ensure economic and cultural exchange on the Maritime Silk Road. To explore and identify tsunami hazard on the Maritime Silk Road, the spatial and temporal characteristics of historical tsunami events were given out. Some useful information hidden in historical tsunamis was searched from source parameters, such as seismic magnitude, focal depth and water depth. The tsunami possibility in the case of earthquake occurrence was also studied, exploring the probability of tsunami caused by different magnitudes. The analysis result shows that tsunamis on the Maritime Silk Road mainly occurred in 8 major tectonic faults, each of which has different tsunami occurrence regularity. On the basis of statistical analysis, a numerical model was used to simulate the potential tsunamis and show the tsunami hazard levels along the coast of Maritime Silk Road. The research results of this paper can help the tsunami early warning and ensure the safety of economic and cultural exchanges on the Maritime Silk Road. |
| 中文摘要: |
| 海上丝绸之路不仅是商业和贸易的通道， 也是东西方文化友谊的道路。2004年印度洋海啸对丝路沿线的多个沿海国家造成了重大破坏。因此需要对海啸发生规律和危害进行分析， 以确保海上丝绸之路上经济和文化交流的安全。为探索和识别海上丝绸之路上的海啸灾害， 本文给出了历史海啸事件的特征和规律。从震源震级、震源深度和水深等震源参数中发现了一些历史海啸数据背后的有用信息。本文还探讨了不同震级引起海啸的概率问题。分析结果表明：海上丝绸之路上的海啸主要发生在8个主要构造断层， 每个断层都有不同的海啸发生规律。在统计分析的基础上， 本文采用数值模型模拟了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸，计算结果展示了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸灾害程度。本文的研究成果有助于海啸灾害预警， 能够为保证海上丝绸之路贸易交流的安全提供科学参考。 |
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