| LI Zhiqiang,ZHANG Runyu,LIU Kai,ZHENG Changling,CHEN Zhikun. 2019. Late onsets of tropical cyclones in the decaying years of super El Niño events. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 38(7):67－73 |
| Late onsets of tropical cyclones in the decaying years of super El Niño events |
| 超强厄尔尼诺事件次年台风生成偏晚原因分析 |
| Received:September 11, 2018 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-019-1458-0 |
| Key words:super El Niño event TC generation disturbance source trigger mechanism |
| 中文关键词: 超强厄尔尼诺事件次年 台风生成条件 扰动源 触发机制 |
| 基金项目:The National Key Research and Development Program for Developing Basic Sciences under contract No. 2016YFC1401601; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 41576026. |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | LI Zhiqiang | National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China | lzq@mail.iap.ac.cn | | ZHANG Runyu | National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | | | LIU Kai | National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | | | ZHENG Changling | National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China | | | CHEN Zhikun | National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| The 2015/2016 El Niño event reached the threshold of super El Niño event, and was comparable to the super events in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998. Interestingly, the tropical cyclones (TCs) were found to have very late onsets in the decaying years of the super El Niño events. This study discusses the causes of late TC onsets related with atmospheric circulation, disturbance sources and trigger mechanisms. The analysis shows that the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) from January-June during the decaying years of the super El Niño events were stronger than the climatic mean, which resulted in a relatively stable atmospheric state by inhibiting deep convection. As a disturbance source, the April-June intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the decaying years of the super El Niño events were significantly weaker than its climatic mean. The cross-equatorial flow and monsoon trough, as important TC generation triggers, were weaker from April-June during the decaying years of the super El Niño events, which further reduced the probability of TC generation. As for the late TC onsets, the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies (i.e., subtropical-high, the ITCZ, cross-equatorial flow, and monsoon trough) were more important. The cross-equatorial flow may take as predictor of TC onsets in the decaying years of the super El Niño events. |
| 中文摘要: |
| 2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件是一次与1982/1983和1997/1998年相当的超强事件，有意思的是3次超强厄尔尼诺事件次年西北太平洋台风生成一致偏晚。本文从台风生成的大气环流、扰动源和触发机制等分析了超强厄尔尼诺事件次年的台风生成偏晚的原因。分析发现作为大气环流背景场的西北太平洋副热带高压在超强事件的次年1-6月与气候值相比明显偏强，使得西北太平洋高低层大气都处于一个比较稳定的状态，在一定程度上抑制了该区域对流的发生和发展；作为扰动源的赤道辐合带，超强事件次年4-6月比气候平均明显偏弱；作为西北太平洋台风生成重要触发机制的越赤道气流、季风槽，在超强事件次年前半年都明显偏弱，使得台风生成的概率进一步降低。对于超强事件次年台风生成时间偏晚的特征，从同期影响来看，大气环流的作用更加重要一些。对于超强事件来说，越赤道气流可以作为台风生成时间的预测因子。 |
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