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Sun Junchuan,Wei Zexun,Xu Tengfei,Sun Meng,Liu Kun,Yang Yongzeng,Chen Li,Zhao Hong,Yin Xunqiang,Feng Weizhong,Zhang Zhiyuan,Wang Yonggang. 2019. Development of a fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting model for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 38(4):154－166

Development of a fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting model for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas

南海及邻近海域大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统研制

Received:March 23, 2018

DOI：10.1007/s13131-019-1419-1

Key words:South China Sea COAWST model MASNUM model atmosphere-wave-ocean forecasting system data assimilation

中文关键词: 南海 COAWST模式 MASNUM模式大气-海浪-海洋预报系统数据同化

基金项目:The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No. 2017YFC1404201; the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No. U1606405; the SOA Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions under contract Nos GASI-IPOVAI-03 and GASI-IPOVAI-02; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41606040, 41876029, 41776016, 41706035 and 41606036.

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Sun Junchuan	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
Wei Zexun	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
Xu Tengfei	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
Sun Meng	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
Liu Kun	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
Yang Yongzeng	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
Chen Li	National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China
Zhao Hong	National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China
Yin Xunqiang	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
Feng Weizhong	South China Sea Marine Prediction Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Guangzhou 510310, China
Zhang Zhiyuan	Hydro-Meteorological Center of Navy, PLA, Beijing 100161, China
Wang Yonggang	Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China	ygwang@fio.org.cn

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Abstract:

A 72-h fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting system was developed for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas. The forecasting model domain covers from from 15°S to 45°N in latitude and 99°E to 135°E in longitude including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Indonesian seas. To get precise initial conditions for the coupled forecasting model, the forecasting system conducts a 24-h hindcast simulation with data assimilation before forecasting. The Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) data assimilation method was adopted for the wave model MASNUM with assimilating Jason-2 significant wave height (SWH) data. The EAKF data assimilation method was also introduced to the ROMS model with assimilating sea surface temperature (SST), mean absolute dynamic topography (MADT) and Argo profiles data. To improve simulation of the structure of temperature and salinity, the vertical mixing scheme of the ocean model was improved by considering the surface wave induced vertical mixing and internal wave induced vertical mixing. The wave and current models were integrated from January 2014 to October 2015 driven by the ECMWF reanalysis 6 hourly mean dataset with data assimilation. Then the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean forecasting system was carried out 14 months operational running since November 2015. The forecasting outputs include atmospheric forecast products, wave forecast products and ocean forecast products. A series of observation data are used to evaluate the coupled forecasting results, including the wind, SHW, ocean temperature and velocity. The forecasting results are in good agreement with observation data. The prediction practice for more than one year indicates that the coupled forecasting system performs stably and predict relatively accurate, which can support the shipping safety, the fisheries and the oil exploitation.

中文摘要:

本文主要介绍了南海及邻近海域大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统的研制概况。预报区域为99°E~135°E，15°S~45°N，包括渤海、黄海、东海和南海及其周边海域。为了给耦合预报模式提供较准确的预报初始场，在预报开始之前，分别进行了海浪模式和海洋模式的前24小时同化后报模拟。海浪模式和海洋模式都采用了集合调整Kalman滤波同化方法，海浪模式同化了Jason-2有效波高数据；海洋模式同化了SST数据、MADT数据和ARGO剖面数据。为了改进海洋温度和盐度的模拟，我们在海洋模式的垂向混合方案中引入波致混合和内波致混合的作用。预报系统的运行主要包括两个阶段，首先海浪模式和海洋模式进行了2014年1月至2015年10月底的同化后报模拟，强迫场源自欧洲气象中心的六小时的再分析数据产品。然后耦合预报系统将同化后报模拟的结果作为初始场进行了14个月的耦合预报。预报产品包括大气产品（气温、风速风向、气压等）、海浪产品（有效波高和波向等）、海流产品（温度、盐度和海流等）。一系列观测资料的检验比较表明该大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统的预报结果较为可靠，可以为南海及周边海洋资源开发和安全保障提供数据和信息产品服务。

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