| HUANG Fei,ZHOU Xiao,WANG Hong. 2017. Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 climate model projections and their seasonal variability. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 36(8):1－8 |
| Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 climate model projections and their seasonal variability |
| CMIP5气候模式模拟的北极海冰特征及其季节变化 |
| Received:April 03, 2016 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-017-1029-8 |
| Key words:Arctic sea ice CMIP5 seasonal cycle melting season annual range |
| 中文关键词: 北极海冰 CMIP5 季节循环 融冰季节 年较差 |
| 基金项目:The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under contract No. 2015CB953904; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 41575067. |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | HUANG Fei | Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266200, China
Ningbo Collabrative Innovation Center of Nonlinear Harzard System of Ocean and Atmosphere, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China | huangf@ouc.edu.cn | | ZHOU Xiao | Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266200, China | | | WANG Hong | Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266200, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). A new approach to compare the simulation metric of Arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established. The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average, linear trend of SIE, span of melting season and annual range of SIE. It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models. Six good models (GFDL-CM3, CESM1-BGC, MPI-ESM-LR, ACCESS-1.0, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-AO in turn) are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach. Based on ensemble mean of the six models, we found that the Arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km2 (defined as the ice-free state) in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario. We also study the seasonal cycle of the Arctic SIE and find out the duration of Arctic summer (melting season) will increase by about 100 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCP8.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21st century. Asymmetry of the Arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring, would be more apparent in the future when the Arctic climate approaches to "tipping point", or when the ice-free Arctic Ocean appears. Annual range of SIE (seasonal melting ice extent) will increase almost linearly in the near future 30-40 years before the Arctic appears ice-free ocean, indicating the more ice melting in summer, the more ice freezing in winter, which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years. |
| 中文摘要: |
| 本文采用最新的CMIP5的模拟结果分析了1979-2100年北极海冰范围的季节变化特征，建立了一个新的用来比较31个CMIP5模式模拟和观测的北极海冰范围的判别方法。这个判别基于四个描述北极海冰特征的因子，即海冰范围的气候平均值、线性趋势、融冰期时长和年较差。这个方法非常客观，可以应用到类似的其他模式模拟结果的比较中去。基于上述标准挑选出6个对北极海冰变化特征模拟得比较好的模式（GFDL-CM3，CESM1-BGC，MPI-ESM-LR，ACCESS-1.0，HadGEM2-CC和HadGEM2-AO），并基于这六个模式结果的集合平均，我们发现北极海冰范围将在未来一百年继续减少，并在RCP4.5（RCP8.5）情景下于2065年（2053年）9月降到1百万平方千米以下（即无冰的北冰洋）。同时我们还研究了海冰范围的季节变化特征，发现到本世纪末北极的夏季融冰期在RCP4.5情景下将增加大约100天，在RCP8.5情景下则增加约200天，北极秋季的结冰期推迟和春季融冰期提前的非对称季节变化特征将在未来北极气候达到临界点时，即北极出现无冰的北冰洋时变得更加显著。海冰范围的季节变化振幅（季节性融冰范围）将在未来的30-40年里继续增大，表明夏季融冰越多，冬季结冰也越多，暗示了未来冬季或夏季可能会出现更多的极端天气气候事件的发生。 |
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