| SONG Zhenya,SHU Qi,BAO Ying,YIN Xunqiang,QIAO Fangli. 2015. The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 34(12):67－71 |
| The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM |
| 气候模式FIO-ESM对2015/16年厄尔尼诺的预测 |
| Received:November 24, 2015 Revised:November 30, 2015 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-015-0787-4 |
| Key words:El Niño prediction FIO-ESM Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation |
| 中文关键词: 厄尔尼诺 预测 FIO-ESM 集合调整卡尔曼滤波同化 |
| 基金项目:The National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No. U1406404; the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contract Nos 201105019 and 201505013. |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | SONG Zhenya | First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China
Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China | | | SHU Qi | First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China
Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China | | | BAO Ying | First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China
Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China | | | YIN Xunqiang | First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China
Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China | | | QIAO Fangli | First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China
Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China | qiaofl@fio.org.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| Recently atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate the tropical Pacific is at the El Niño condition. However, it's not clear whether this El Niño event of this year is comparable to the very strong one of 1997/98 which brought huge influence on the whole world. In this study, based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter (EAKF) assimilation scheme and First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIO-ESM), the assimilation system is setup, which can provide reasonable initial conditions for prediction. And the hindcast results suggest the skill of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is comparable to other dynamical coupled models. Then the prediction for 2015/16 El Niño by using FIO-ESM is started from 1 November 2015. The ensemble results indicate that the 2015/16 El Niño will continue to be strong. By the end of 2015, the strongest strength is very like more than 2.0℃ and the ensemble mean strength is 2.34℃, which indicates 2015/16 El Niño event will be very strong but slightly less than that of 1997/98 El Niño event (2.40℃) calculated relative a climatology based on the years 1992-2014. The prediction results also suggest 2015/16 El Niño event will be a transition to ENSO-neutral level in the early spring (FMA) 2016, and then may transfer to La Niña in summer 2016. |
| 中文摘要: |
| 当前大气和海洋的观测表明热带太平洋已经处于赤道中东太平洋暖异常的厄尔尼诺状态。然而,此次厄尔尼诺的强度将如何,是否能够达到强厄尔尼诺事件甚至超过最近几十年最强的1997/98年厄尔尼诺强度是当前国际关注的科学焦点问题之一。本文采用卫星观测的海表温度和海面高度异常数据对国家海洋局第一海洋研究所地球气候系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)的海洋分量模式进行了集合调整卡尔曼滤波同化,建立了气候模式同化与预测系统,继而进行了1992-2014年的同化实验和1993-2013年6个月的逐月后报实验。结果表明,该系统对厄尔尼诺的预测水平与国际上主流的厄尔尼诺预测模式水平相当。随后,从2015年11月1日起报,利用该同化与预测系统进行了6个月的厄尔尼诺强度预测。集合平均的预测结果表明,此次赤道中东太平洋厄尔尼诺事件将发展为超过2℃暖异常的强厄尔尼诺事件并在今年冬季强度达到高峰,其强度弱于1997/98年的超强厄尔尼诺事件,此次厄尔尼诺事件随时间将逐渐消退至2016年初春结束。 |
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