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XIA Jiangjiang,YAN Zhongwei,ZHOU Wen,FONG Soi Kun,LEONG Ka Cheng,TANG Iu Man,CHANG S W,LEONG W K,JIN Shaofei. 2015. Projection of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta's potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 34(9):78-84
Projection of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta's potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations
基于CMIP5模拟预估21世纪珠江三角洲地区由于海平面上升而导致的淹没区面积
Received:September 26, 2014  Revised:March 23, 2015
DOI:10.1007/s13131-015-0700-1
Key words:sea level  Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta (PRD)  representative concentration pathways (RCPs)  CMIP5  submerged area  Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)
中文关键词:  海平面  珠江三角洲  代表性浓度路径  CMIP5  集合经验模分解方法
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
XIA Jiangjiang Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China xjj_8448@163.com 
YAN Zhongwei Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China  
ZHOU Wen Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China  
FONG Soi Kun Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China  
LEONG Ka Cheng Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China  
TANG Iu Man Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China  
CHANG S W Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China  
LEONG W K Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China  
JIN Shaofei Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China  
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Abstract:
      Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level (GMSL) change and the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta (PRD) sea level change is calculated: an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m (uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m) increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 (0.21 to 0.40) m under RCP2.6, 0.31 (0.22 to 0.42) m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 (0.25 to 0.46) m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 (0.36 to 0.88) m, 0.71 (0.47 to 1.02) m, and 1.0 (0.68 to 1.41) m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence (i.e., 0.20 m) and that obtained from intermonthly variability (i.e., 0.33 m), the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level (i.e., 1.41 m). Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57×103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.
中文摘要:
      海平面上升可导致陆地潜在淹没区面积增大,对其研究有助于进一步理解全球变暖对沿海地区的影响。本研究利用集合经验模分解方法(EEMD)对海平面高度的时间序列进行分解,得到长期变化趋势分量。利用全球平均海平面和珠江三角洲海平面的长期趋势分量之间的关系,以及CMIP5耦合模式在温室气体排放情景(代表性浓度路径情景,RCP2.6,RCP4.5 和RCP8.5情景)的输出结果,预估珠江三角洲海平面的变化特征。结果为,到2050年,在RCP2.6,RCP4.5 和RCP8.5情景下,珠江三角洲海平面分别升高0.29 (0.21 to 0.40)米,0.31 (0.22 to 0.42)米,和0.34 (0.25 to 0.46)米;到2100年,0.59 (0.36 to 0.88) 米, 0.71(0.47 to 1.02) 米, 和1.0 (0.68 to 1.41) 米。进一步地,考虑到地面沉降的作用,以及海平面变化的月际变率的极大值,珠江三角洲海平面最大可升高1.94米,到2100年珠江三角洲地区潜在淹没区面积将是现在的3倍。
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