| ZHANG Yi,CAO Yingyi. 2015. A fuzzy quantification approach of uncertainties in an extreme wave height modeling. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 34(3):90－98 |
| A fuzzy quantification approach of uncertainties in an extreme wave height modeling |
| 极值波高建模中不确定性的模糊量化方法 |
| Received:February 24, 2014 Revised:October 21, 2014 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-015-0636-5 |
| Key words:offshore engineering extreme value distribution wave height peak over threshold fuzzy set Pareto distribution |
| 中文关键词: 海事工程 极值分布 有效波高 POT 模糊集合 Pareto模型 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Abstract: |
| A non-traditional fuzzy quantification method is presented in the modeling of an extreme significant wave height. First, a set of parametric models are selected to fit time series data for the significant wave height and the extrapolation for extremes are obtained based on high quantile estimations. The quality of these results is compared and discussed. Then, the proposed fuzzy model, which combines Poisson process and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model, is applied to characterizing the wave extremes in the time series data. The estimations for a long-term return value are considered as time-varying as a threshold is regarded as non-stationary. The estimated intervals coupled with the fuzzy theory are then introduced to construct the probability bounds for the return values. This nontraditional model is analyzed in comparison with the traditional model in the degree of conservatism for the long-term estimate. The impact on the fuzzy bounds of extreme estimations from the non stationary effect in the proposed model is also investigated. |
| 中文摘要: |
| 本篇论文提出了一种对有效波高极值建模当中不确定性的非传统模糊量化方法。首先,传统的参数模型被选择拿来拟合记录的海洋波高数据及其相关的极值推断。本文将就这些模型及数据进行比较和讨论。然后,本文提出一种新型的模糊模型以结合泊松过程和广义Pareto分布(GPD)模型在拟合时间序列上产生的不确定性。在建模中,长期回归值以及阈值被认为是随时间变化的非平稳状态。再基于模糊理论拓展定理,本文深入介绍了构建模糊回归值的新型构造方法。这种非传统的模型,在与传统模型中的比较中具有高度保守性。在模糊界限的设计理念里,可以使得结构的稳固设计达到更好的解决。 |
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