| YANG Qinghua,LIU Jiping,ZHANG Zhanhai,SUI Cuijuan,XING Jianyong,LI Ming,LI Chunhua,ZHAO Jiechen,ZHANG Lin. 2014. Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 33(12):15－23 |
| Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study |
| 北极海冰密集度预报对大气强迫敏感性的个例研究 |
| Received:February 09, 2014 Revised:August 08, 2014 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-014-0566-7 |
| Key words:Arctic Ocean sea ice concentration forecast |
| 中文关键词: 北冰洋， 海冰密集度，预报 |
| 基金项目: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | YANG Qinghua | Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | yqh@nmefc.gov.cn | | LIU Jiping | State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China | | | ZHANG Zhanhai | Key Laboratory for Polar Science of State Oceanic Administration, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China | | | SUI Cuijuan | Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | | | XING Jianyong | Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | | | LI Ming | Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | | | LI Chunhua | Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | | | ZHAO Jiechen | Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | | | ZHANG Lin | Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China (NMEFC), and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS) is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializations: (1) the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E). Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmospheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS. |
| 中文摘要: |
| 国家海洋环境预报中心近来建立了基于美国麻省理工学院通用环流模式（MITgcm）的北极海冰数值预报系统，其大气强迫场选用美国环境预测中心的全球大气预报系统（NCEP GFS）。为了进一步改进预报系统，结合2010年夏季期间三个典型的北极天气和海冰过程，使用新发展的Polar WRF大气模式预报产品，测试评估了北极海冰密集度预报对大气强迫数据的敏感性。预报初始化分别使用美国冰雪中心专用微波成像仪（SSM/I）或德国不莱梅大学AMSR-E（地球观测系统先进微波扫描辐射计）两种不同的北极海冰密集度卫星资料。评估表明，Polar WRF大气强迫的北极海冰密集度预报相比NCEP GFS结果有所改进。 |
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