| CHO Kyoung-Ho,CHOI Jin-Yong,JEONG Sang-Hun,CHOI Jung-Woon,KWON Jae-Il,PARK Kwang-Soon. 2013. Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 32(9):74－81 |
| Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system |
| Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system |
| Received:March 01, 2012 Revised:May 10, 2013 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-013-0354-9 |
| Key words:skill assessment tool operational forecast system Korea operational oceanographic system |
| 中文关键词: skill assessment tool operational forecast system Korea operational oceanographic system |
| 基金项目:The Project “Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System (PM57041)” funded by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs of the Korean Government;the Project “Cooperation on the Development of Basic Technologies for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea Operational Oceanographic System (YOOS)” funded by the China-Korea Joint Ocean Research Center (CKJORC). |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | CHO Kyoung-Ho | Coastal Disaster Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan 426-744, Republic of Korea | | | CHOI Jin-Yong | Coastal Disaster Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan 426-744, Republic of Korea | | | JEONG Sang-Hun | Coastal Disaster Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan 426-744, Republic of Korea | | | CHOI Jung-Woon | Coastal Disaster Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan 426-744, Republic of Korea | | | KWON Jae-Il | Coastal Disaster Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan 426-744, Republic of Korea | | | PARK Kwang-Soon | Coastal Disaster Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan 426-744, Republic of Korea | kspark@kiost.ac |
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| Abstract: |
| A standard skill assessment (SA) tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system. The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations, and involved the computation of multiple skillmetrics including correlation and error skills. User-and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system. To achieve this, the tool produced a time series comparison plot, a skill score table, and an advanced summarized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores. Moreover, the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables. For the atmospheric variables, acceptable error criteriawere preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales, since themean square error overwhelmed the observation variance. Conversely, for the hydrodynamic variables, acceptable root mean square percentage error (e.g., perms) criteria were preferable to acceptable error (e.g.,erms) criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency (fc) for which errors fell within the specified limits (i.e., the fc equals 70%). |
| 中文摘要: |
| A standard skill assessment (SA) tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system. The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations, and involved the computation of multiple skillmetrics including correlation and error skills. User-and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system. To achieve this, the tool produced a time series comparison plot, a skill score table, and an advanced summarized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores. Moreover, the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables. For the atmospheric variables, acceptable error criteriawere preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales, since themean square error overwhelmed the observation variance. Conversely, for the hydrodynamic variables, acceptable root mean square percentage error (e.g., perms) criteria were preferable to acceptable error (e.g.,erms) criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency (fc) for which errors fell within the specified limits (i.e., the fc equals 70%). |
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