| Qin Zenghao,Li Yongping,Duan Yihong. 1998. Preliminary study on the sea level change and its long-term prognostic method for Shanghai. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, (1):27－39 |
| Preliminary study on the sea level change and its long-term prognostic method for Shanghai |
| Preliminary study on the sea level change and its long-term prognostic method for Shanghai |
| Received:November 02, 1996 Revised:February 28, 1997 |
| DOI： |
| Key words:Eustatic sea-level relative sea-level long-term prediction stepwise regression with multivariates maximum entropy spectrum analysis |
| 中文关键词: Eustatic sea-level relative sea-level long-term prediction stepwise regression with multivariates maximum entropy spectrum analysis |
| 基金项目:This project was supported by the Scientific and Technological Development Foundation of Shanghai Municipality. |
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| Abstract: |
Utilizing the historical tide-gauge records (1912-1993) and the statistical approaches, two issues, the characteristics of the mean annual eustatic sea level (MAESL) in the last decades and its long-term amplitude's estimation in the coming years for Shanghai are dealt with in this paper.
A statistical method fitting the variation of the MAESL is established.It is shown from the model extrapolation that the MAESL will rise by 5 and 11 cm, respectively relative to 1990 for Shanghai by the years of 2010 and 2030.As to the current ground subsidence mainly resulting from the over-exploitation of ground water and the average vertical crust deformation and its trend, it is estimated by other Chinese scientists that ground subsides by 12 and 19 cm on average, respectively.
Considering a variety of undeterminable factors in mean annual relative sea-level estimation, the reasonable values of the mean rate of rise in the relative sea-level relative to 1990 for Shanghai roughly amount to be 15-25 cm in 2010 and 25-35 cm in 2030.
Finally the reasons for the rising of the mean sea-level of Shanghai are tentatively discussed. |
| 中文摘要: |
Utilizing the historical tide-gauge records (1912-1993) and the statistical approaches, two issues, the characteristics of the mean annual eustatic sea level (MAESL) in the last decades and its long-term amplitude's estimation in the coming years for Shanghai are dealt with in this paper.
A statistical method fitting the variation of the MAESL is established.It is shown from the model extrapolation that the MAESL will rise by 5 and 11 cm, respectively relative to 1990 for Shanghai by the years of 2010 and 2030.As to the current ground subsidence mainly resulting from the over-exploitation of ground water and the average vertical crust deformation and its trend, it is estimated by other Chinese scientists that ground subsides by 12 and 19 cm on average, respectively.
Considering a variety of undeterminable factors in mean annual relative sea-level estimation, the reasonable values of the mean rate of rise in the relative sea-level relative to 1990 for Shanghai roughly amount to be 15-25 cm in 2010 and 25-35 cm in 2030.
Finally the reasons for the rising of the mean sea-level of Shanghai are tentatively discussed. |
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