| Liu Qiuxing,Jiang Jinrong,Yu Fujiang,Zhang Changkuan,Dong Jianxi,Song Xiaojiang,Wang Yuzhu.Typhoon storm surge ensemble forecast based on GPU technique[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2020,42(5):77-86 |
| 基于GPU技术的风暴潮集合预报 |
| Typhoon storm surge ensemble forecast based on GPU technique |
| 投稿时间：2019-05-30 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-020-1570-8 |
| 中文关键词: 台风 风暴潮 集合预报 概率预报 CUDA Fortran |
| 英文关键词:typhoon storm surge ensemble forecast probability forecast CUDA Fortran |
| 基金项目: |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 刘秋兴 | 河海大学港口海岸及近海工程学院, 南京, 210098
国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081 | | | 姜金荣 | 中科院计算机网络信息中心, 北京, 100190 | jjr@sccas.cn | | 于福江 | 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081 | | | 张长宽 | 河海大学港口海岸及近海工程学院, 南京, 210098 | | | 董剑希 | 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081 | | | 宋晓姜 | 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081 | | | 王玉竹 | 中国地质大学信息工程学院, 北京, 100083 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和路径的不确定性意味着使用集合模式来预报风暴潮。本文利用中央气象台的最优路径台风参数驱动国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的水动力学模型，开展华南沿海的风暴潮模拟，模式模拟结果与实测吻合较好。为了改进计算效率，采用CUDA Fortran 语言对模型进行了改造，改造后的模型在计算结果与原模型基本一致的基础上，计算时间缩短了99%以上。通过融合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）的50条路径与3种可能台风强度构造出了150个台风事件，并用150个台风事件驱动改进的风暴潮数值模型，计算结果可以提供集合预报产品和概率预报产品。通过“山竹”台风风暴潮过程可以发现集合平均预报结果和概率预报结果与实测吻合较好。改进的数值模型可以运行普通工作站上，非常适合风暴潮集合预报，并且可以提供更好的决策产品。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges. The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm surges. A hydrodynamic model, which is operational at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, is applied to conduct surge simulations for South China coastal areas using the best track data with parametric wind and pressure models. The results agree well with tidal gauge observations. To improve the calculation efficiency, the hydrodynamic model is modified using CUDA Fortran. The calculation results are almost the same as those from the original model, but the calculation time is reduced by more than 99%. A total of 150 typhoon cases are generated by combining 50 typhoon tracks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with three possible typhoon intensity forecasts. The surge ensembles are computed by the improved hydrodynamic model. Based on the simulated storm surges for the different typhoon cases, ensemble and probability forecast products can be provided. The mean ensemble results and probability forecast products are shown to agree well with the observed storm surge caused by Typhoon Mangkhut. The improved model is highly suitable for ensemble numerical forecasts, providing better forecast products for decision-making, and can be easily implemented to run on regular workstations. |
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