| Zhang Jingchun,Ma Jian,Che Jing,Zhou Zhenqiang,Gao Guoping.Surface warming patterns dominate the uncertainty in global water vapor plus lapse rate feedback[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2020,39(3):81-89 |
| 表面增暖形态决定了全球水汽加温度直减率反馈的不确定性 |
| Surface warming patterns dominate the uncertainty in global water vapor plus lapse rate feedback |
| 投稿时间：2019-04-28 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-019-1531-2 |
| 中文关键词: 表面增暖形态 不确定性 水汽反馈 直减率反馈 相对湿度 气温 辐射核 |
| 英文关键词:surface warming patterns uncertainty water vapor feedback lapse rate feedback relative humidity air temperature radiative kernels |
| 基金项目:The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 41675070; the Shanghai Eastern Scholar Program under contract No. TP2015049; the Expert Development Fund under contract No. 2017033; the China Scholarship Council under contract No. 201506330007. |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 张静纯 | 海洋科学学院, 上海海洋大学, 上海, 201306 | | | 马建 | 海洋学院, 上海交通大学, 上海, 200030 | Jian.Ma@SJTU.edu.cn | | 车婧 | 海洋科学学院, 上海海洋大学, 上海, 201306 | | | 周震强 | 大气研究所, 复旦大学, 上海, 200438 | | | 高郭平 | 海洋科学与工程学院, 上海海事大学, 上海, 201306 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 气候反馈通常是利用与全球平均表面温度升高相关的辐射效应变化来评估的。但是反馈的不确定性不仅仅是全球平均表面温度升高的函数。全球气候模式的预测表明，海表面温度变化的地域不同，给区域尺度上的大气环流和降水响应带来了重大不确定性。在本文中我们证明了表面增暖的空间格局是造成水汽-直减率综合反馈的不确定性的主要因素。基于运用辐射核理论计算的31个气候模型中，气温和相对湿度变化的全球平均辐射效应证明了这一观点。我们的结果突出了区域气候变化对气候反馈不确定性的重要贡献，并确定了世界上限制表面增暖形态对提高气候预测能力最有效的区域。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Climate feedbacks have been usually estimated using changes in radiative effects associated with increased global-mean surface temperature. Feedback uncertainties, however, are not only functions of global-mean surface temperature increase. In projections by global climate models, it has been demonstrated that the geographical variation of sea surface temperature change brings significant uncertainties into atmospheric circulation and precipitation responses at regional scales. Here we show that the spatial pattern of surface warming is a major contributor to uncertainty in the combined water vapour-lapse rate feedback. This is demonstrated by computing the global-mean radiative effects of changes in air temperature and relative humidity simulated by 31 climate models using a methodology based on radiative kernels. Our results highlight the important contribution of regional climate change to the uncertainty in climate feedbacks, and identify the regions of the world where constraining surface warming patterns would be most effective for higher skill of climate projections. |
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