| SUI Cuijuan,ZHANG Zhanhai,YU Lejiang,LI Yi,SONG Mirong.Investigation of Arctic air temperature extremes at north of 60°N in winter[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2017,36(11):51-60 |
| 60°N以北冬季极端温度事件趋势分析 |
| Investigation of Arctic air temperature extremes at north of 60°N in winter |
| 投稿时间：2017-05-11 修订日期：2017-07-03 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-017-1137-5 |
| 中文关键词: 极端温度事件 趋势分析 突变分析 合成分析 |
| 英文关键词:extreme temperature events trend analysis abrupt change analysis composite analysis |
| 基金项目:南北极环境综合考察专项-极地对全球和我国气候变化影响的综合评价（CHINARE2016-04-04）；海洋公益性行业科研专项项目（201505013）；国家自然科学基金（41576029） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 隋翠娟 | 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院, 青岛, 266100
国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081 | suicj@nmefc.gov.cn | | 张占海 | 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院, 青岛, 266100 | | | 于乐江 | 中国极地研究中心, 上海, 200129
海洋局极地科学重点实验室, 上海, 200136 | | | 李熠 | 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081 | | | 宋米荣 | 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京, 100029 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 温度是反映气候变化的一个重要指标。极端温度事件会严重影响人类的自然环境和社会活动。本文我们进行了60°N以北的冬季极端温度事件分析，利用GSOD（global summary of the day）1979-2015年共238个站点的日数据，分析1979-2015年期间冬季冷日、冷夜、暖日及暖夜的趋势，结果显示：北极区域冷日和冷夜趋势在下降（速率为-2到-3天/十年），暖日和暖夜趋势在上升（速率为+2到+3天/十年）。温度均值的上升导致暖（冷）日、暖（冷）夜的增加（减少），而大部分站点温度方差的减少引起极端冷事件减少。AO正位相导致北欧及俄罗斯西部区域暖日、暖夜增加，冷日、冷夜减少，白令海峡及格陵兰岛附近冷日、冷夜增加，暖日、暖夜减少；而秋季北极海冰范围偏少时冷日、冷夜趋势会下降。利用M-K突变方法检测到加拿大区域冷夜在1998年发生过突变，欧亚大陆西北部暖夜在1988年发生过突变。突变主要是由于偏南风及北大西洋海温升高引起的温度均值上升引起。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Air temperature is a key index reflecting climate change. Air temperature extremes are very important because they strongly influence the natural environment and societal activities. The Arctic air temperature extremes north of 60°N are investigated in the winter. Daily data from 238 stations at north of 60°N from the global summary of the day for the period 1979-2015 are used to study the trends of cold days, cold nights, warm days and warm nights during the wintertime. The results show a decreasing trend of cold days and nights (rate of -0.2 to -0.3 d/a) and an increasing trend of warm days and nights (rate of +0.2 to +0.3 d/a) in the Arctic. The mean temperature increases, which contributes to the increasing (decreasing) occurrence of warm (cold) days and nights. On the other hand, the variance at most stations decreased, leading to a reduced number of cold events. A positive AO (Arctic Oscillation) index leads to an increased (decreased) number of warm (cold) days and nights over northern Europe and western Russia and an increased (decreased) number of cold (warm) days and nights over the Bering Strait and Greenland. The lower extent of Arctic autumn sea ice leads to a decreased number of cold days and nights. The occurrences of abrupt changes are detected using the Mann-Kendall method for cold nights occurring in Canada in 1998 and for warm nights occurring in northwestern Eurasia in 1988. This abrupt change mainly resulted from the mean warming induced by south winds and an increased North Atlantic sea surface temperature. |
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