| WANG Cao,LI Quanwang,PANG Long,ZOU Aming,ZHANG Long.Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2016,35(12):110-118 |
| 考虑飓风过程非平稳性的沿海地区飓风灾害评估 |
| Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency |
| 投稿时间：2015-09-28 修订日期：2015-12-31 |
| DOI：10.1007/s13131-016-0828-7 |
| 中文关键词: 飓风 灾害评估 强度 频率 非平稳性 气候变化 |
| 英文关键词:hurricane damage assessment intensity frequency non-stationarity climate change |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 飓风等自然灾害的发生会对沿海地区造成巨大的社会、经济损失，因此有必要合理评估这些区域的建筑在飓风作用下的灾害。已有研究指出，全球气候变暖会影响未来飓风的强度和发生频率。本文考虑飓风发生（随机）过程的非平稳性，提出了沿海地区飓风灾害评估的新方法。用非齐次泊松过程来描述飓风的发生，并用时变的统计参数（均值、标准差）来反映飓风强度的变化。在此基础上，给出了累积飓风灾害的均值、方差的显式公式。选取美国佛罗里达州迈阿密县进行案例分析，研究了飓风过程非平稳性对累积灾害的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction performance subjected to hurricanes and assessing the hurricane damages properly. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have been reported to change with time due to the potential impact of climate change. In this paper, a probability-based model of hurricane damage assessment for coastal constructions is proposed taking into account the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. The non-homogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the non-stationarity in hurricane occurrence while the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity is reflected by the time-variant statistical parameters (e.g., mean value and/or standard deviation), with which the mean value and variation of the cumulative hurricane damage are evaluated explicitly. The Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA, is chosen to illustrate the hurricane damage assessment method proposed in this paper. The role of non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and occurrence rate due to climate change in hurricane damage is investigated using some representative changing patterns of hurricane parameters. |
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