赵霞,杨光.IPCC耦合模式对北太平洋海-气系统冬季重现的模拟[J].海洋学报,2019,41(9):114-125 |
IPCC耦合模式对北太平洋海-气系统冬季重现的模拟 |
The winter-to-winter recurrence in the North Pacific air-sea system: IPCC-AR4 model evaluation |
投稿时间:2018-09-30 修订日期:2018-11-25 |
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.09.011 |
中文关键词: 北太平洋 海-气系统 持续性 冬季重现(再现) IPCC模式评估 |
英文关键词:North Pacific air-sea system persistence winter recurrence IPCC model evaluation |
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41375094)。 |
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中文摘要: |
冬季重现(再现)是中高纬度大尺度海表温度重要的持续性特征,是热带外海洋特有的现象。北太平洋大气环流也存在这一现象,它可能会强迫产生这一海域海温的冬季重现。本文利用IPCC 20C3M耦合模式资料,评估了耦合模式模拟北太平洋海-气系统冬季重现的能力。北太平洋海温冬季重现的空间范围是海盆尺度的,中部重现时间比其周围晚。大气环流场的冬季重现主要是在北太平洋中部,它与海温冬季重现关系密切。大多数IPCC耦合模式基本上可以模拟出太平洋海温大范围的冬季重现现象。与重现范围的模拟相比,耦合模式对重现时间地理差异的模拟都比较差。各模式对大气环流冬季重现时空分布特征的模拟较差,大部分模式未能模拟出大气环流场中主要的重现区域。而且,大气环流冬季重现对海温重现的可能影响并没有体现在这些耦合模式中。耦合模式对北太平洋大气冬季重现的模拟还有待改善。 |
英文摘要: |
Winter-to-winter recurrence (WWR) is an important persistence characteristic of large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in middle-high latitude, which is a unique phenomenon of the extratropical ocean. Its influence on extratropical climate change can not be ignored. WWR also exist in the atmosphere in the North Pacific Ocean, which could induce SSTAs WWR. In this paper, the WWRs of the air-sea system in the North Pacific are evaluated using the model output of 23 coupled models of CMIP in IPCC 4th assessment. Observational results show that, SSTAs WWR occurs over most of the basin of North Pacific, but the recurrence timing is in winter in the central and in fall in other regions. The atmospheric WWR is mainly located in central North Pacific, which is essential for the occurrence of the SSTAs WWR. Most of models can simulate the basinwide SSTAs WWR, but they can't reproduce the geographical distribution of recurrence timing well. Compared with the SSTAs, little skill is shown in the WWR of the atmospheric circulation in most models. Moreover, the possible effect of the atmospheric WWR on the SSTAs WWR is not reflected in these coupled models. The coupling model has yet to be improved for simulating the atmospheric WWR in the North Pacific. |
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