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高辉,高晶.黑潮冬季海温对我国东北地区夏季降水预测信号的增强[J].海洋学报,2014,36(7):27-33
黑潮冬季海温对我国东北地区夏季降水预测信号的增强
Increased influences of the SST along the Kuroshio in previous winter on the summer precipitation in northeastern China
投稿时间:2013-04-23  修订日期:2013-12-20
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.04.004
中文关键词:  黑潮  东北冷涡  西太平洋副热带高压  降水
英文关键词:Kurishio  northeastern cold vortex  western Pacific subtropical high  precipitation
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(201306033);科技部国际合作项目(2009DFA23010)。
作者单位
高辉 中国气象局 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 
高晶 内蒙古自治区气候中心, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051 
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中文摘要:
      统计分析结果表明,黑潮冬季海温和东北夏季降水的关系有非常明显的年代际变化,表现为从20世纪50-60年代弱的正相关逐步转变为现阶段很强的负相关。尤其是在东北夏季降水异常年份,黑潮海温呈明显的反位相变化,因此可被视为一个非常有效的前兆预测信号。分析了可能的影响机制,即当前期黑潮海温偏低时,海洋热力异常的持续性会导致其夏季低层出现反气旋式风场距平环流,在西太平洋副热带高压(副高)西北侧出现东北风距平及在东北冷涡东南侧出现西南风距平,导致在副高区和东北冷涡区均形成气旋式距平环流系统,从而减弱了副高并增强了东北冷涡。反之,黑潮海温偏高时,其上空气旋式距平环流系统将减弱东北冷涡强度和增强副高强度。这是黑潮海温影响东北夏季降水异常的主要原因。
英文摘要:
      Statistical results indicate the relationships between the SST along the Kuroshio in previous winter and the summer precipitation in northeastern China have experienced a remarkable interdecadal variation. In the 1950s and 1960s,the correlation is positive but weak,while in recent two decades the counterpart is significantly negative. In the flood or drought events in northeastern China,the SST along the Kuroshio shows quite different features and can be used as a precursory signal in climate prediction operation. The possible influencing mechanism is also analyzed in this paper. It is found the lower SST along the Kuroshio will cause an abnormal anticyclone in the lower troposphere in summer owing to the persistence of the thermal conditions of the ocean. This abnormal anticyclone will lead to an abnormal northeastly in the northwest side of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSTH) and an abnormal southwestly in the southeast part of the northeastern cold vortex (NECV),and result in an abnormal cyclone over the WPSTH and the NECV respectively. Thus the WPSTH is weakened while the NECV is strengthened. Under this circulation pattern,more summer precipitation will be found in northeastern China. On the contrary,the warmer SST along the Kuroshio will trigger an abnormal cyclone in the lower troposphere,and strengthen the WPSTH while weaken the NECV,and finally lead to less precipitation.
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